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I’m a huge fan of statistics, but only when used sensibly. The biggest problem with statistics is when people jump to conclusions believing that a single statistic determines a conclusive outcome, which is exactly what the mainstream media seem to be doing with house price surveys.
Whilst these measures all seem to be signalling a rise in house prices, they actually only represent a modest increase in the transactions taking place at the moment, they do not account for the millions of properties that are not currently on the market. So yes the value of each individual mortgage application has increased on average, and yes the value of each completed house sale has increased on average. But this may not reflect the wider market as mortgages are currently being limited to about 90% of the property value, so it is possible that only those with significant equity in their current property are moving house and they are probably taking advantage of the lower prices to trade-up the property ladder.
Also summer is traditionally a time when people look to buy new homes and it remains to be seen whether these rises can be sustained once we head into the winter. Add in the ever increasing number of people unemployed, the shrinking GDP and huge public sector debt and there seems to be little reason to justify why house prices should be on the up.
These may be the early green shoots that everyone has been talking about, but in a years time we may realise they were just weeds taking advantage of a barren soil…. only time will tell.
It’s been a long time coming but I have finally joined the mass ranks of uninformed voters today by casting my vote in both the County Council and European Parliament elections. As somebody in their late twenties (writing that hurts!), I have had several opportunities to vote in the past, and whilst I have always made the effort to get to the polling station I always opted to spoil my vote as I felt I did not know enough about each candidate to make an informed choice.
I also strongly believe that the majority of voters cast their votes knowing very little beyond the marketing hype that surrounds each party. However, failing to engage in the political process would be far worse and I am very disappointed to hear that voter turnout is predicted to be around 25%.
Such a low turnout undoubtedly leads to questions about whether those elected really represent our nation, but you can not blame those individuals elected or the 25% that did make the effort (even if they did spoil their votes!). The blame rests solely with the 75% of people that felt they had something more important to do today and they can have no complaints if they later disagree with the policies those elected introduce. Whilst those 25% of us that did vote can go back to complaining about MP expenses.
So if you haven’t already cast your vote, please go and do so now!
The recession is over, we can all rejoice in surviving the “great recession”. But if a recession was that easy what were we all worrying about?
The truth is we are no where near the end of this recession, despite the recent surge of bright economic news in recent weeks. Whilst stock markets may have turned a corner it is well known that they rally long before the real economy does. Unemployment is still rising and that along with GDP should be the key indicator of a nations economic health.
So why the optimism? (more…)
This week our unelected Government pushed through legislation to abolish student loans. Unfortunately this doesn’t mean you don’t have to repay, it’s just becoming more of a tax rather than a loan! So what exactly have they done?
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I’d probably be rather stressed right now if I were in Alistair Darling’s position. He finds himself preceding over the most difficult budget in a generation as we are arguably close to entering a depression.
So what do I think he will do? And what would I do?
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