This time it was betting against United winning the Premier League, and having edged Liverpool to the title this ended up costing me £99.97. This however was partly offset by the £23.58 I earned when Barcelona comprehensively beat United in the Champions League final (and the reason why it has taken me so long to write this post).
I also lost a fair bit of money betting against United on single matches but these losses were offset by taking advantage of some free bet offers. In total I have earned £74.56 in the last couple of months betting and it would have been far more if only I could stop betting against United.
]]>
I should have made a lot more but I gambled some of the free bet on a Chelsea win by over-laying with the following possible outcomes:
| Betfair | Bookmaker | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | -£11.06 | £12.50 | £1.44 |
| Draw / West Ham win | £43.70 | -£50 | -£6.30 |
Of course Chelsea duly drew this game leaving me £6.30 poorer and questioning when I will ever learn that there is no such thing as a sure fire bet.
]]>The games kept me entertained for a couple of hours with me playing ‘Deal or No Deal’ followed by a few games of ‘Higher or Lower’. The wagering requirements were £80 before I could make a withdrawal, but I didn’t get that far as I swiftly lost all of the money.
The only problem now is the cashback is only showing as £20 in my GreasyPalm account which is a bit disappointing as they had promised £50 in their email. Plus it will be a couple of months before I get my cashback so fingers crossed they pay up.
*** Feb-09 Update ***
I have now recieved the full £50 cashback.
]]>However after playing the Footballs Pools every week for the last four months I have failed to win a prize, in fact my initial optimism from the first week when I correctly predicted 7 results was the best result I got. Most weeks I was able to score 4-5 correct results out of 10, but one weekend when all of the big four failed to win I only scored 3.
So in summary I have concluded I am rubbish at predicting football scores, although for what it’s worth I reckon Chelsea will win the Champions League!
]]>I have clearly not learned any lessons from that experience, as with Sunderland holding United nil-nil after 85 minutes I thought I was on to a winner backing the game to finish a draw. With the odds on a draw rapidly dropping I followed up my first bet with a lay bet, thus locking in a £2.80 profit if the game were to finish a draw with nothing to lose if either team were to grab a last minute winner.
However greed got the better of me and I again put £10 on the result being a draw hoping to lock in a bigger profit as the odds continued to slide towards the full time whistle. But before I could make the lay bet on the draw, Vidic grabbed an injury time winner and my £10 evaporated as quickly as Sunderland’s hopes of winning a precious point at Old Trafford.
]]>This time they were offering a £50 free bet after the first £50 qualifying bet which I turned into a £30.70 profit using the matched betting technique. Then by placing a further ten £10 bets I received another £50 free bet which I was able to match out for a £32.27 profit.
Not to be outdone some of the bookies I am already signed up with were trying to encourage me back to their sites this week with one offering a free £5 bet as an incentive and another offering a £5 free bet if I placed a similar qualifying bet. Low stakes perhaps, but this still resulted in a quick £7.62 profit.
Overall this brings my matched betting total this week to a healthy £70.59.
]]>
Placing my £25 qualifying bet on Bordeaux to win, and laying against Bordeaux at Betfair gave me the following possible outcomes:
| Betfair | Bookmaker | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bordeaux win | -£62.50 | £57.50 | -£5.00 |
| Draw / Cluj win | £23.75 | -£25 | -£1.25 |
This bet was then matched by the bookmaker for free, with me laying against the free bet too:
| Betfair | Bookmaker | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bordeaux win | -£41.90 | £57.50 | £15.60 |
| Draw / Cluj win | £15.61 | Free bet | £15.61 |
So overall the possible outcomes were:
| Betfair | Bookmaker | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bordeaux win | -£104.40 | £115 | £10.60 |
| Draw / Cluj win | £39.36 | -£25 | £14.36 |
As you can see it wasn’t a perfect matched bet as I stood to win more if Bordeaux hadn’t won as I was effectively betting some of my future profits on Cluj getting a result. Nevertheless I ended up with a profit of £10.60 and should hopefully get an additional £25 cashback too.
*** Dec-08 Update ***
I have now recieved the £25 cashback from Quidco taking my total profit to £35.60
]]>Thankfully everything went to plan this time and I was able to extract a £58.81 profit from the £80 worth of free bets. Whilst a return of 73.5% may not be the most spectacular return I have achieved from matched betting it does at least mean I am back on the bike after falling off on Sunday (figuratively speaking at least).
]]>However in my rush to use up the bet I threw my money on Hamilton to win the race at odds of 2.00, with a lay bet being placed at the same odds. Unfortunately this was my first mistake as when free bets are SNR you really want odds of around 6.00 to maximise the return. Although as it was I could still expect to make a profit of £10, i.e. a 50% return. But I didn’t stop there….
I tried to trade my way out of it by placing over 40 different bets throughout the race to try and improve my return. This was my second mistake as I left myself exposed to events that occurred during the race. True to form they did go against me leaving me with a £21.28 liability at Betfair which is greater than the £20 return I am expecting from the bookmaker.
So in 2 hours I had turned an expected profit of around £15 into a £1.28 loss. I have another £30 free bet to use sometime today, but I might go and have breakfast first!
]]>