Green shoots or are they just weeds?

I’m a huge fan of statistics, but only when used sensibly. The biggest problem with statistics is when people jump to conclusions believing that a single statistic determines a conclusive outcome, which is exactly what the mainstream media seem to be doing with house price surveys.

Whilst these measures all seem to be signalling a rise in house prices, they actually only represent a modest increase in the transactions taking place at the moment, they do not account for the millions of properties that are not currently on the market. So yes the value of each individual mortgage application has increased on average, and yes the value of each completed house sale has increased on average. But this may not reflect the wider market as mortgages are currently being limited to about 90% of the property value, so it is possible that only those with significant equity in their current property are moving house and they are probably taking advantage of the lower prices to trade-up the property ladder.

Also summer is traditionally a time when people look to buy new homes and it remains to be seen whether these rises can be sustained once we head into the winter. Add in the ever increasing number of people unemployed, the shrinking GDP and huge public sector debt and there seems to be little reason to justify why house prices should be on the up.

These may be the early green shoots that everyone has been talking about, but in a years time we may realise they were just weeds taking advantage of a barren soil…. only time will tell.

Isle of Wight by Hovercraft for just £1

Fifty years ago a revolutionary new form of transport was launched from the Isle of Wight. It was not quite a boat and not quite a plane, but the hovercraft went on to become a British success story with Griffon Hoverwork in Southampton claiming to have built over half the world’s commercial hovercraft.

Planning a bike ride around the Isle of Wight I knew straight away I wanted to cross the Solent by hovercraft. Costing the same as the ferry but making the journey in just 10 minutes it really was an easy decision for me, but it really became a no-brainer when I realised I was able to take advantage of a special £1 fare offer. Compared to the usual price of £8 each way, I was able to save £14 and have a little bit of fun too!

Gym sheds more than just pounds of fat

Back at the start of the year I wrote about my plans to give up the gym to save money, however this plan was thwarted when Fitness First offered to substantially reduce my monthly fee for 3 months. Now that the fee has gone back up to £31.25 per month I have finally given up my gym membership after being a member for 3 years at a total cost of over £1000.

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Gambling + Emotions = Big Losses (Part 2)

Last summer I wrote about the huge losses I sustained by betting against United winning the Champions League. And guess what, I have only gone and done it again!

This time it was betting against United winning the Premier League, and having edged Liverpool to the title this ended up costing me £99.97. This however was partly offset by the £23.58 I earned when Barcelona comprehensively beat United in the Champions League final (and the reason why it has taken me so long to write this post).

I also lost a fair bit of money betting against United on single matches but these losses were offset by taking advantage of some free bet offers. In total I have earned £74.56 in the last couple of months betting and it would have been far more if only I could stop betting against United.

I’ve finally joined the mass ranks of uninformed voters

It’s been a long time coming but I have finally joined the mass ranks of uninformed voters today by casting my vote in both the County Council and European Parliament elections. As somebody in their late twenties (writing that hurts!), I have had several opportunities to vote in the past, and whilst I have always made the effort to get to the polling station I always opted to spoil my vote as I felt I did not know enough about each candidate to make an informed choice.

I also strongly believe that the majority of voters cast their votes knowing very little beyond the marketing hype that surrounds each party. However, failing to engage in the political process would be far worse and I am very disappointed to hear that voter turnout is predicted to be around 25%.

Such a low turnout undoubtedly leads to questions about whether those elected really represent our nation, but you can not blame those individuals elected or the 25% that did make the effort (even if they did spoil their votes!). The blame rests solely with the 75% of people that felt they had something more important to do today and they can have no complaints if they later disagree with the policies those elected introduce. Whilst those 25% of us that did vote can go back to complaining about MP expenses.

So if you haven’t already cast your vote, please go and do so now!